PMI Mortgage Insurance Company Releases Summer 2007 PMI Risk Index
PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., the U.S. subsidiary of The PMI Group, Inc. (NYSE:PMI) , has recently released its Summer 2007 U.S. Market Risk Index(SM), which ranks the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) according to the likelihood that home prices will be lower in two years.
The enhanced index, which gives additional weight to an area’s recent price volatility, shows a shift in risk toward Florida and California, as well as certain areas of the southwest. For the 50 largest MSAs, the average score, weighted by population, was 346, translating into a 34.6 percent chance that prices will be lower in two years.
An additional feature of the enhanced index is the introduction of risk ranks, which group areas with consistent characteristics together. Riverside, CA, Phoenix, AZ, Las Vegas, NV, and West Palm Beach, FL rank highest on the index, with a 60 percent or greater chance that home prices will be lower in two years. Five of the 11 MSAs facing a greater than 50 percent chance of a price decline are in California (Los Angeles, Santa Ana, Oakland, Sacramento, and San Diego) and four are in Florida (Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, Miami, and Tampa); the other two are Boston, MA and Washington, D.C.
Texas, Ohio, Indiana, and Pennsylvania MSAs constitute the lowest ranked group-those facing a less than 10 percent chance of lower prices.
According to information obtained from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, the rate of price appreciation slowed in all but five of the 50 largest MSAs, and only five saw appreciation in the double digits in the first quarter of 2007, down from 26 in the first quarter of 2006. Nine MSAs-West Palm Beach, FL, Oakland, Sacramento, and San Diego, CA, Boston and Cambridge, MA, Detroit and neighboring Warren, MI, and Cleveland, OH-saw slight year-over-year price declines. In most areas, the risk of price declines continues to be balanced by strong economic fundamentals, including low unemployment.
A complete copy of the Summer 2007 PMI Economic and Real Estate Trends report, a podcast summarizing results, and an appendix that provides data for all U.S. MSAs are available at http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=63356&p=irol-publications.
PMI Summer 2007 PMI U.S. Market Risk Index
Rank MSA Score Rank MSA Score
1 Riverside-San Bernardino 3 Cambridge-Newton
-Ontario, CA 652 -Framingham, MA 336
1 Phoenix-Mesa- 3 Minneapolis-St. Paul
Scottsdale, AZ 646 -Bloomington, MN 322
1 Las Vegas-Paradise, NV 614 3 New York-White Plains,
-Wayne NY-NJ 322
1 West Palm Beach-Boca 3 Newark-Union, NJ 314
Raton-Boynton Beach, FL 607
2 Los Angeles-Long Beach- 4 Detroit-Livonia-
Glendale, CA 586 Dearborn, MI 284
2 Santa Ana-Anaheim- 4 Philadelphia, PA 237
Irvine, CA 577
2 Oakland-Fremont- 4 Warren-Troy-
Hayward, CA 572 Farmington Hills, MI 236
2 Orlando-Kissimee, FL 563 4 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-
Marietta, GA 212
2 Sacramento-Arden- 4 Milwaukee-Waukesha
Arcade-Roseville, CA 560 -West Allis, WI 189
2 San Diego-Carslbad- 4 St. Louis, MO-IL 182
San Marcos, CA 555
2 Fort Lauderdale-Pompano 4 Nashville-Davidson-
Beach-Deerfield Murfreesboro-
Beach, FL 542 Franklin, TN 177
2 Miami-Miami Beach- 4 Chicago-Naperville-
Kendall, FL 524 Joliet, IL 175
2 Tampa-St. Petersburg- 4 Denver-Aurora, CO 156
Clearwater, FL 506
2 Boston-Quincy, MA 501 4 Austin-Round Rock, TX 136
2 Washington-Arlington- 4 Kansas City, MO-KS 136
Alexandria, DC-VA-MC 500
3 San Jose-Sunnyvale- 4 Charlotte-Gastonia-
Santa Clara, CA 491 Concord, NC-SC 125
3 Virginia Beach-Norfolk- 4 Cleveland-Elyria-
Newport News, VA-NC 476 Mentor, OH 121
3 Nassau-Suffolk, NY 445 5 San Antonio, TX 102
3 San Francisco-San Mateo- 5 Cincinnati-Middletown,
Redwood City, CA 411 OH-KY-IN 97
3 Baltimore-Towson, MD 400 5 Columbus, OH 93
3 Providence-New Bedford- 5 Indianapolis- 84
Fall River, RI-MA 397 Carmel, IN
3 Jacksonville, FL 394 5 Houston-Sugar Land-
Baytown, TX 79
3 Portland-Vancouver- 5 Dallas-Plano-
Beaverton, OR 389 Irving, TX 75
3 Edison, NJ 362 5 Fort Worth-
Arlington, TX 74
3 Seattle-Bellevue- 5 Pittsburgh, PA 64
Everett, WA 343
About PMI’s Economic & Real Estate Trends(SM) (ERET) and U.S. Market Risk Index(SM)
The PMI Economic and Real Estate Trends (ERET) containing the US Market Risk Index is published quarterly by PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., a subsidiary of The PMI Group, Inc. (NYSE:PMI) . The Risk Index is a proprietary statistical model that measures geographic house price risk by predicting the probability that home prices in the nation’s 379 largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and metropolitan statistical area divisions (MSADs) (as measured by the House Price Index from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO)) will be lower in two years. The PMI U.S. Market Risk Index is based on the OFHEO House Price Index , labor market statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the PMI Affordability Index, which uses local per capita household income, home price appreciation, and a blended mortgage rate to calculate the local share of mortgage payment to income relative to its baseline year of 1995. The PMI U.S. Market Risk Index scale ranges from one to 1,000 and translates to a percentage. For example, a score of 100 indicates a 10 percent chance that home prices will be lower in two years.
About PMI Mortgage Insurance Co.
PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. (PMI US), a subsidiary of The PMI Group, Inc. (NYSE:PMI) , provides residential mortgage insurance to mortgage lenders, capital market participants, and investors throughout the United States. PMI US is incorporated in Arizona, headquartered in Walnut Creek, CA, and licensed in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and the Virgin Islands. By mitigating default risk, residential mortgage insurance expands home ownership opportunities and assists financial institutions in reducing the capital they are required to hold against low down payment mortgages. PMI US is rated AA by Standard and Poor’s, Aa2 by Moody’s, and AA+ by Fitch. For more information: www.pmi-us.com.